Where do you see a break?

vendredi 25 juin 2010 ·


Using data provided by the Institut de la Statistique du Québec for GDP between 1926 to 1981*, I gave the 1926 real GDP per capita a trend of 2 percent annually and compared the 2 percent trend with the observed GDP figures. Considering that I am attempting to test the idea emitted that Quebec was declining mostly between 1926 and 1939 while recovering under the Duplessis years, using the 1926 start point is valid. By all standards, the Duplessis administration did perform better than in the previous period and does not diverge massively from the era of the Quiet Revolution. This a particular feat since recessions in the 1944-1960 have occured more frequently than in the 1960 to 1976 period (3 separate recessions during the Duplessis years against 1 separate one during the Quiet Revolution and one "shared" recession between the two periods).

I maintain my point that the concept of a great darkness is clearly an overblown one and by extension so is the Quiet Revolution. What we should understand is that Quebec was preparing for a huge take-off under Duplessis.

Note:Those figures predate the 1997 historical revision of the National and provincial Accounts by Stat. Can.and therefore, are not compatible with the actual data 1981 to 2010 published by S.C in the Prov. Econ. Accounts. However, for the purposes of this paper, they are sufficient and reliable but to be taken with a degree of caution.

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Auteurs

Bryan Breguet est candidat au doctorat en sciences économiques à l’université de Colombie-Britannique. D’origine Suisse, il a passé les cinq dernières années au Québec au cours desquelles il s’est engagé en politique provinciale malgré le fait qu’il ne possédait pas encore la citoyenneté canadienne. Il détient un B.Sc en économie et politique ainsi qu’une maitrise en sciences économiques de l’université de Montréal. Récipiendaire de plusieurs prix d’excellences et bourses, il connaît bien les méthodes quantitatives et leurs applications à la politique.







Vincent Geloso holds a master’s degree in economic history from the London School of Economics, with a focus on business cycles, international development, labor markets in preindustrial Europe and the new institutional economics. His research work examined the economic history of the province of Quebec from 1920 to 1960. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and political science from the Université de Montréal. He has also studied in the United States at the Washington Centre for Academic Seminars and Internships. Mr. Geloso has been an intern for the Prime Minister’s cabinet in Ottawa and for the National Post. He has also been the recipient of a fellowship from the Institute for Humane Studies and an international mobility bursary from the Ministère des Relations internationales du Québec. Currently, he is an economist at the Montreal Economic Institute.

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